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Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
C-suite exit: Adobe (ADBE) slides despite strong results and outlook, as another top exec departs.
Silver lining: Trump signals a deal with Iran may be finalized soon, but Tehran has yet to decide.
Taming inflation: The ECB eyes July pause after first rate hike since 2023, with hawks making a comeback.
It’s finally here! Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) is set to debut in the U.S. stock market today in what is set to become the largest and arguably the most closely watched IPO ever. The rocket maker priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising roughly $75B and valuing it at a whopping ~$1.77T.
Massive demand: A strong debut for SpaceX could bolster confidence in the next wave of mega-cap IPOs, which includes Anthropic (ANTHRO) and OpenAI (OPENAI). SpaceX’s IPO already drew extraordinary interest from individual investors, with retail orders exceeding $100B, Bloomberg reported. Retail buyers were allocated about 20% of the shares, and based on the planned $75B deal size, that allocation would leave a large portion of individual investor demand unmet. The offering also attracted orders from ~1,000 institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds. Among the largest orders, BlackRock requested at least $5B of stock, The Wall Street Journal reported. To note, investors frequently submit orders larger than their intended allocations in oversubscribed IPOs.
Huge payday: A handful of firms stand to reap tens of billions of dollars from SpaceX’s IPO, in what could be among the largest venture capital paydays ever recorded. Founders Fund, led by Musk’s longtime associate Peter Thiel, owns a roughly 3% stake in SpaceX after investing $600M over several rounds. That stake is now worth more than $50B. Andreessen Horowitz, one of SpaceX’s largest early backers, holds a stake that’s now valued at over $10B. Veteran stock picker Ron Baron’s firm invested about $2B in SpaceX over the years, a stake that has grown to roughly $12B. Other beneficiaries include Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, Fidelity Investments and Sequoia Capital.
First trillionaire: With SpaceX’s IPO, its CEO Elon Musk is on track to become the world’s first trillionaire. His net worth, which currently stands at $971B, is expected to cross $1.1T after SPCX’s trading debut. Most of Musk’s wealth rests with SpaceX, in which he holds a stake worth ~$866B. Musk will retain overwhelming voting control after the IPO, giving him effective authority over SpaceX’s strategic direction and board composition. A major reason why investors are lining up for the IPO is Musk’s track record in turning ambitious ideas into commercially successful businesses, as evidenced by Tesla and SpaceX.
SA commentary: “I maintain a buy rating for SpaceX as a momentum play, not a long-term investment due to high retail allocation and engineered exit opportunities for pre-IPO holders,” said Investing Group Leader Dhierin Bechai. But Investing Group Leader Daniel Jones assigned SPCX a ‘strong sell’ rating due to “an extreme 93.7x revenue multiple and unsustainable valuation.” While Jones believes SpaceX has long-term potential to thrive, he said “the unfortunate reality is that Elon Musk has a history of making big promises and under-delivering.” Investing Group Leader Mycroft Friedrich thinks everyone buying into the IPO is hoping for Tesla (TSLA) to merge with SpaceX, creating a company with a combined value of $2.53T.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Prepare For AI Volatility: 3 Dividend Stocks Powering The Grid
The Stock Market Crash – Still In Early Phase
Buy The Dip: Big Dividends Getting Cheap
Inflation Signal With 87% Hit Rate Is Flashing Again
Sandisk: Market Has Completely Misread The AI NAND Supercycle
What else is happening…
Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) rebalance: Which stocks made the cut?
Why Alphabet (GOOGL) rejected Trump’s $2B quantum funding.
Google expands home listings nationwide; real estate stocks fall.
Jeff Bezos: AI will generate labor scarcity, raise standard of living.
FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) to delist from London.
South Korea’s Amazon (CPNG) gets record fine over data breach.
U.S. is the world’s top oil exporter, breaking Saudi-Russian grip.
Senate defense bill boosts Ukraine aid, backs arms procurement.
Court says U.S. can collect 10% global tariffs while suit plays out.
Iran adds Elon Musk’s Middle East businesses as military targets.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +2.8%. Hong Kong +1.9%. China +1.1%. India +2.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1%. Paris +1.7%. Frankfurt +1.5%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude -3.9% to $84.32. Gold +2.9% to $4,234.50. Bitcoin +1.4% to $63,668.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1 bp to 4.46%.
On The Calendar
See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.
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