By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist and George Maris, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Global Equities
Global markets have been whipsawed by a series of sharp blows in the last few days, mainly centering around concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Our view remains that the strength of household and corporate balance sheets implies recession is unlikely, but we acknowledge that risks are building.
To help decipher and contextualize the current market reaction, Chief Global Strategist, Seema Shah, and Equities Chief Investment Officer, George Maris, provided some clarity into the current situation and their expectations for the remainder of 2024.
Seema, could you please explain the current macro picture and the market’s reaction to the most recent jobs report?
Seema Shah (SS): Market weakness had been underway for a few weeks prior to July’s jobs report. The market was already on edge given the fairly weak numbers from the recent ISM Manufacturing Report, jobless claims, and the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish than expected rate hike decision. Notably, while the market expected a 175k increase in payrolls, the July number was meaningfully weaker at +114k. It was a clear downside surprise, but, in context, 114k is not that bad of a number. Typically, anything 150k or above is consistent with a solid economy. While the number was below that mark, it’s not consistent with recession by any means — instead, it suggests a slowing economy, which investors already knew. Yet as markets tried to decipher where payrolls would be over the next few months, they extrapolated a downward trend and interpreted the latest data as a signal that recession is on its way.
What does the current situation look like from your perspective, George?
George Maris (GM): Equity markets were already in a precarious position before the recent volatility. There were several risk factors present, including a historically unhealthy concentration in a narrow portion of the market, particularly large-cap growth stocks; extremely low volatility, with the VIX tripling from its earlier lows; uncharacteristically strong inflows into equity markets, setting up a vulnerable technical situation; and systematic trading strategies hitting their limits and being forced to sell, exacerbating the downward pressure.
In addition, many investors had been heavily leveraged in the yen carry trade, borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like semiconductor stocks and the Magnificent Seven. As a hawkish BoJ met weak U.S. economic data, the yen strengthened against the dollar, causing this trade to unravel rapidly, leading to forced selling that further pressured crowded trades. This type of leverage and speculative positioning had made the market structure concerning, and we expect elevated volatility to continue as these technical factors get resolved. However, we see this as an opportunity for active managers to take advantage of indiscriminate selling and find attractive long-term investments.
Do you see the August jobs report as the start of a trend, or an outlier?
SS: We aren’t jumping on the panicked bandwagon because we know payroll numbers are incredibly volatile, often flipping back and forth from month to month. We wouldn’t be shocked to see the numbers rebound next month, particularly because it has been difficult to separate what is a hurricane-related drop in jobs growth and what is a fundamental weakening in the labor market. As it stands, ~50% of Wall Street expects the August jobs report to see a rebound because they’re allocating much of July’s weakness to Hurricane Beryl. Part of the market reaction was also due to a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3%, which triggered the Sahm Rule. This rule indicates a recession if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% over 12 months. However, this time, this recession signal may be weaker than it appears because it typically applies when unemployment rises due to layoffs. Today, the increase largely stems from a growing labor force, not job losses, so it doesn’t necessarily signal recession.
Do recent events change the path of Fed policy for the rest of 2024?
SS: Just six weeks ago, some in the market said that there would be no rate cuts this year because the economy was so strong! Up until Friday (August 2), market pricing saw 50-75bps of cuts this year. Now, expectations have shifted to a 50bps cut in September, a 25/50bps cut in November, and a 25bps cut in December. This is a major shift in the narrative and a meaningful deterioration from where we were even just a week ago.
From our perspective, the Fed does not need to ease policy so aggressively. If the August jobs report returns to more normal territory, we expect a 25bps cut in September, a 25bps cut in November in recognition that market sentiment has taken a meaningful hit, and a 25bps cut in December. However, if the August jobs report confirms that there is a fundamental weakening in the labor market, then a 50bps cut will become our baseline scenario for September.
There has been some limited speculation in the market about an inter-meeting cut, ahead of the September meeting. Historically, inter-meeting cuts only happen if credit spreads are blowing out significantly or a financial crisis is unfolding, of which there is little sign. However, given that the VIX spiked, some concerns are lingering in the market. If that were to persist, it could signal looming financial system risk and an interim meeting cut could be possible — but that is a very unlikely scenario at this stage.
GM: Regarding Fed rate cuts, I would warn that if they are in response to unfolding recession or financial systemic risk, they are not necessarily a positive catalyst for markets. The average downdraft after the first Fed cut is over 20%, lasting nearly a year. So when the Fed starts cutting, especially if it is in response to weakening economics, it is not an all-systems-go signal. Ideally, the economy continues to slow only modestly and the Fed cuts rates to ensure it can pilot a soft landing. If that is the case, then markets can perform well.
Are there any other market conditions that investors should be aware of?
GM: The level of crowding in Big Tech has become dangerous and in recent weeks, markets were becoming increasingly concerned with Big Tech earnings reports for Q2. While Big Tech companies have not reported bad numbers, with absolute growth and profitability remaining strong, markets had elevated expectations that required the companies to be spectacular to continue the upward momentum. As more data becomes available, expect the market to reset expectations around the real growth potential of these companies. Big Tech is still a secular growth area, even if they may no longer be benefiting from unbridled enthusiasm.
Ultimately, do you see the current economic situation culminating in a hard or soft landing?
SS: Although the job market data has been slowing and recent weak data has increased recession risks, the current economic landscape doesn’t raise major concerns, as the fundamentals remain solid. With strong household balance sheets supporting ongoing consumer spending and robust corporate balance sheets maintaining healthy profit margins, we don’t anticipate a significant worsening in the job market whereby modest economic weakness transitions to a hard landing. Our baseline expectation is that recession will be avoided.
Even so, the depth of the negative narrative now implies that an imminent full market recovery is unlikely. Investors should pay particular attention to the August jobs report, as it will provide crucial insights into the labor market’s trajectory and the appropriate policy response from the Fed. This data will be instrumental in making informed investment decisions in the face of market turbulence, which we see as creating opportunities for disciplined, active investment strategies.
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